Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States
利用美国计量经济模型，通过随机模拟估算抑制不同冲击后实际GNP和GNP平减指数总体方差的减少量，量化经济波动的多种来源。
There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Although there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvious, since economies seem complicated. The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative estimates of various sources of variability using a U. S. econometric model. Stochastic simulation is used to estimate how much the overall variances of real GNP and the GNP deflator are reduced when various shocks are suppressed in the model.