A Prospective Assessment of the Impacts of Bovine Somatotropin: A Case Study of Wisconsin
通过威斯康星州奶牛场案例，评估牛生长激素对牛奶供应、价格和农场结构的影响，发现其经济影响远小于其他研究预测，但符合科克伦的“跑步机”理论。
Abstract The predicted effects of bST on aggregate supply, milk price, and farm structure is extremely sensitive to several key assumptions: the impact of bST on production per cow, cost of bST to farmers, returns required by farmers to adopt bST, price of milk when bST is introduced, speed and extent of adoption. A case study of Wisconsin dairy farms indicates that the overall economic impact of bST will be much less than most other studies have predicted. The projected effects, however, are similar to Cochrane's treadmill theory, albeit less severe than predicted by earlier estimates.