存在结构断点时的协整零假设检验

Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks*

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · 2006
被引 172
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

提出一种拉格朗日乘子型统计量,用于检验存在结构断点(包括确定性和协整向量中的断点)时的协整零假设,并考虑了内生回归变量的情况。该检验补充了通常的非协整检验,以获取更强的协整证据。

Abstract

Abstract We propose a Lagrange Multiplier‐type statistic to test the null hypothesis of cointegration allowing for the possibility of a structural break, in both the deterministic and the cointegration vectors. Our proposal focuses on the presence of endogenous regressors. The test complements the usual non‐cointegration tests so as to obtain stronger evidence of cointegration. We consider the cases of known and unknown dates of the break. In the latter case, we show that minimizing the Sum of Squared Residuals results in a super‐consistent estimator of the break fraction. Finally, the behaviour of the tests is studied through Monte Carlo experiments.

协整检验结构突变拉格朗日乘子统计量内生回归元