Impacts of future biological-technological progress on arable farming
通过德尔菲调查和线性规划模型，评估未来20年生物技术进步对耕地农业的影响，发现经济政治环境对作物生产影响显著，提高劳动生产率的创新技术最有前景，但可能导致轮作失衡和生态问题。
This article deals with biological-technological developments in crop production and their impacts on arable farming within the next 20 years. Possible future technological developments are evaluated with the help of a Delphi survey. The impacts of promising new technologies are estimated by means of a Linear Programming model under three different scenarios. An important outcome of the model calculations is that crop production is strongly influenced by the economic and political environment. The most promising improvements are offered by new technologies which enhance labour productivity. Competitive new technologies can cause unbalanced crop rotations with non-desirable ecological effects and substantial changes in agricultural commodity markets.