Sophistication-Related Differences in Investors' Models of the Relative Accuracy of Analysts' Forecast Revisions
研究成熟与不成熟投资者如何利用分析师特征和预测年龄等因素来预测预测修正的相对准确性，发现成熟投资者更了解这些因素与准确性的关系，并更依赖成本效益高的因素。
The accuracy of sell-side analysts' forecast revisions is related to a number of factors, including characteristics of the analyst and the age of the forecast. In this study we examine whether there are differences in how sophisticated and unsophisticated investors use these factors to predict the relative accuracy of forecast revisions. We adapt the lens model methodological approach from the judgment and decision-making literature to investigate these differences in an archival setting. Our results suggest that sophisticated investors have greater knowledge overall about the relation of the factors to forecast accuracy. Further, our evidence is consistent with sophisticated investors relying more on the specific factors that provide the most benefits (relative to their costs) for predicting relative forecast accuracy.