违约证券定价的一般公式

A General Formula for Valuing Defaultable Securities

Econometrica · 2004
被引 180
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

证明,在无跳跃条件不成立时,仍可通过调整概率测度来用期望折现法为违约证券定价,并给出简单解析解。

Abstract

Previous research has shown that under a suitable no-jump condition, the price of a defaultable security is equal to its risk-neutral expected discounted cash flows if a modified discount rate is introduced to account for the possibility of default. Below, we generalize this result by demonstrating that one can always value defaultable claims using expected risk-adjusted discounting provided that the expectation is taken under a slightly modified probability measure. This new probability measure puts zero probability on paths where default occurs prior to the maturity, and is thus only absolutely continuous with respect to the risk-neutral probability measure. After establishing the general result and discussing its relation with the existing literature, we investigate several examples for which the no-jump condition fails. Each example illustrates the power of our general formula by providing simple analytic solutions for the prices of defaultable securities.

违约证券定价风险中性定价概率测度变换无跳条件