Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment
基于七年面板数据，研究发现降雨指数保险的近期赔付经历和同村居民的溢出效应都会显著影响后续需求，但溢出效应随时间衰减，而自身经历的影响持久。
This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand, consistent with overinference from small samples. Second, spillovers also matter, in the sense that the recent payout experience of village co-residents affects insurance demand about as much as one's own recent payout experience. Third, the spillover effect decays as time passes while the effect of one's own experience does not. We discuss implications of this analysis for commercial sustainability of this complicated but promising risk management technology.