Forecast Bias and MSFE Encompassing
指出当预测存在偏差时，标准MSFE包含性条件不再成立，并提出修正条件及检验方法，通过通胀与赤字预测实例说明其对货币与财政政策制定的意义。
We show that the standard condition for MSFE encompassing is no longer valid when the forecasts to be compared are biased. We propose a simple modification of such a condition and of tests for its validity. The theoretical results are illustrated by an empirical example on inflation and deficit forecasts, key variables for the formulation of monetary and fiscal policy.