Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe
研究1989年飓风雨果对南卡罗来纳州沿海平原松木价格的短期和长期影响，发现短期因抢救性采伐导致价格下跌30%，长期则因资源减少使价格上涨10%至30%。
Abstract Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long‐run price shifts. With timber, these long‐run price shifts may be accompanied by a short‐run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short‐ and long‐run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices with prices of similar products from other regions. Modeling revealed a 30% negative price spike due to salvage and a long‐run enhancement effect, leading to prices that are 10% to 30% higher than they would have been had Hugo not occurred.