A Belief-Based Account of Decision Under Uncertainty
提出一个基于信念的决策模型，结合支持理论的概率判断和前景理论的风险决策，通过篮球季后赛和经济指标实验验证，结果支持该模型但违背经典理论的分割不等式。
We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from (i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of the respective events. Study 1 involved the 1995 professional basketball playoffs; Study 2 involved the movement of economic indicators in a simulated economy. The results of both studies are consistent with the belief-based account, but violate the partition inequality implied by the classical theory of decision under uncertainty.