“Reverse Bayesianism”: A Choice-Based Theory of Growing Awareness
提出一种新方法，用公理体系建模决策者在意识增长时信念的演变，核心是“不变风险偏好”公理，并得到类似“反向贝叶斯主义”的信念更新规则。
This article introduces a new approach to modeling the expanding universe of decision makers in the wake of growing awareness, and invokes the axiomatic approach to model the evolution of decision makers' beliefs as awareness grows. The expanding universe is accompanied by extension of the set of acts, the preference relations over which are linked by a new axiom, invariant risk preferences, asserting that the ranking of lotteries is independent of the set of acts under consideration. The main results are representation theorems and rules for updating beliefs over expanding state spaces and events that have the flavor of “reverse Bayesianism.”