El Nino Southern Oscillation and the fishmeal-soya bean meal price ratio: regime-dependent dynamics revisited
研究了厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）异常对鱼粉与豆粕价格比的影响，使用平滑转换自回归模型发现ENSO冲击在一年内对价格比有统计显著的经济影响。
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts commodity production and prices around the world. This study revisits fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio dynamics and examines it in relation to the ENSO anomalies. A smooth transition autoregressive modelling framework is applied to assess nonlinearities in the ENSO–price ratio relationship, and generalised impulse–response functions and derived asymmetry functions are utilised to illustrate characteristic features of the estimated model dynamics. The results suggest economically meaningful impacts of ENSO on the price ratio dynamics, and indicate statistical significance of these effects for up to one year after the ENSO shocks.