The Effect of Foreign Competition on Forecasting Bias
利用五个非洲国家的企业调查数据，发现没有外国竞争的企业在销售增长预测中表现出更大的趋势偏差和乐观偏差，且这些错误预测会影响企业的库存管理。
This paper studies the effect of foreign competition on the extent of forecasting bias. I focus on two biases often described in the behavioral economics literature: overoptimism and excessive belief in trends. Using data from firm-level surveys in five African countries, I show that firms that do not face foreign competition generate forecasts of sales growth that have greater trend and optimism biases than firms that have foreign competitors. I further provide evidence that these erroneous forecasts have real effects on firms' inventory management. © 2006 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.