Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity
通过代理变量分解股票收益的方差，发现预期收益冲击和预期现金流冲击分别解释年度收益方差的30%和43%，合计约58%，供读者判断市场效率。
ABSTRACT Measuring the total return variation explained by shocks to expected cash flows, time‐varying expected returns, and shocks to expected returns is one way to judge the rationality of stock prices. Variables that proxy for expected returns and expected‐return shocks capture 30% of the variance of annual NYSE value‐weighted returns. Growth rates of production, used to proxy for shocks to expected cash flows, explain 43% of the return variance. Whether the combined explanatory power of the variables—about 58% of the variance of annual returns—is good or bad news about market efficiency is left for the reader to judge.