Who Gets Debt Relief?
利用62个低收入国家的初步数据,研究发现债务减免更多流向政策较好的国家,且主要来自多边债权人;高负债国并不更易获得减免,但大债务国更可能获得;债务减免对GDP增长波动反应不大,且持续性主要由缓慢变化的国别特征驱动。
We use preliminary data from an ongoing effort to construct estimates of debt relief to study its allocation across 62 low-income countries. We find some evidence that debt relief, particularly from multilateral creditors, has been allocated to countries with better policies in recent years. Somewhat surprisingly, conditional on per capita incomes and policy, more indebted countries are not much more likely to receive debt relief. However, countries that are large debtors vis-á-vis especially multilateral creditors are more likely to receive debt relief. We do not find much evidence that debt relief responds to fluctuations in GDP growth. Finally, most of the persistence in debt relief is driven by slowly changing country characteristics, suggesting that it may be difficult for countries to "exit" from cycles of repeated debt relief.