The Measurement and Determinants of Single‐Family House Prices
评估了美国多种房价序列的概念与实证特征，计算了1950-1989年存量住房净升级调整，发现趋势、波动和决定因素因价格序列而异。调整后房价40年上涨5.7%，1980年代因实际税后利率和材料成本下降而下跌，1980年代末因失业率降低、利率下降及婴儿潮人口因素而回升。
We assess the conceptual and empirical features of a number of house price series for the United States. We then calculate a measure of the net up‐grading of the existing stock of houses that took place during the 1950–1989 period and adjust price indexes for this net increase in quality. Judgments about the trend, volatility, and determinants of house prices are shown to depend crucially on which price series is used. The Freddie Mac upgrade‐adjusted house price measure rose 5.7% over the past four decades, falling 7.7% from 1950 through 1970 before rising 14.5% from 1970 through 1989. Real house prices declined in the early 1980s due to the increase in real after‐tax interest rates and the decline in real materials costs. The recovery of house prices in the late 1980s is attributed to lower unemployment and real after‐tax interest rates and particularly to demographic factors associated with the aging of baby boomers.