Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
利用非洲41个国家1981-99年的降雨量作为经济增长的工具变量，发现经济负增长显著增加内战风险，且该效应在富裕、民主或种族多样化的国家并无显著差异。
Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981–99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one‐half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.