INCOME REDISTRIBUTION VERSUS ACCELERATED ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARISON OF DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS
构建计量模型分析收入增长率和收入分配变化对生育率和预期寿命的影响，模拟发现收入再分配对减缓发展中国家人口增长并非普遍有效，仅在较发达的发展中国家可能有用，但更直接的手段可能更有效。
An attempt is made to identify the effects on fertility and mean expectation of life of varying rates of growth in aggregate income and of changes in the income share of the poorer segments of the population. The extent to which these effects vary among developing countries with different levels of mean income is also considered. An econometric model is developed to estimate the direction and strength of the structural relationships among the key variables, and simulation methods are used to predict the final demographic effects of altering either the growth rate or the size distribution of income. The results suggest that there is no general justification for income redistribution as a means of slowing rates of population growth in a developing country. It may be relevant in the more advanced developing countries, but even in those, more direct means (such as family planning programs, education, and health services) may be more effective. This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1983 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 49, No. 3, Fall 1983, p. 356).