Estimation of Revealed Probabilities and Utility Functions for Product Safety Decisions
利用消费者产品购买调查数据，联合估计个体效用函数和风险感知，发现消费者行为风险信念与调查给出的概率不一致，不符合标准贝叶斯学习模型。
Using survey data on consumer product purchases, this paper introduces an approach to estimate jointly individual utility functions and risk perceptions implied by their decisions. The behavioral risk beliefs reflected in consumers' risky decisions differ from the stated probabilities given to them in the survey. These results are not consistent with a Bayesian learning model in which the information respondents utilize is restricted to what the survey presents. The results are, however, potentially consistent with models in which prior risk information is influential or models in which people do not act in a fully rational manner.