投资过度与大衰退

Investment Hangover and the Great Recession

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2018
被引 59
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

构建了一个由大衰退启发的投资过度模型,解释耐用资本(如住房)过度建设如何导致需求驱动的衰退,并分析货币政策和福利改进政策。

Abstract

We present a model of investment hangover motivated by the Great Recession. Overbuilding of durable capital such as housing requires a reallocation of productive resources to other sectors, which is facilitated by a reduction in the interest rate. When monetary policy is constrained, overbuilding induces a demand-driven recession with limited reallocation and low output. Investment in other capital initially declines due to low demand, but it later booms and induces an asymmetric recovery in which the overbuilt sector is left behind. Welfare can be improved by ex post policies that stimulate investment (including in overbuilt capital) and ex ante policies that restrict investment.

投资过度大衰退资源再配置货币政策约束