On the Collapse of Historical Civilizations
用内生人口增长和可再生资源模型分析四个历史文明的崩溃，发现这些崩溃在社会层面可能是最优的，并指出系统短期行为比均衡行为更敏感。
Abstract To explain the collapse of historical civilizations, scholars typically point to suboptimal behaviors including misunderstanding the natural environment, shortsightedness, or a lack of institutions. We examine the collapse of four historical societies with a model of endogenous population growth and renewable resources employing components of optimal resource management, economic growth theory, and the moral philosophy of social welfare function choice. We find that these collapses may have been socially optimal. Further, we show that the transient behavior of the system is more sensitive to assumptions than the equilibrium behavior and that focusing solely on equilibria may miss key insights.