Some Lessons from the Yield Curve
综述了短期与长期利率关系的文献，总结了预期假说的混合证据，并讨论了1994年春美国债券市场对货币政策变化的反应及政府债务最优期限结构的争论。
This paper reviews the literature on the relation between short- and long-term interest rates. It summarizes the mixed evidence on the expectation hypothesis of the term structure: when long rates are high relative to short rates, short rates tend to rise as implied by the expectations hypothesis, but long rates tend to fall, which is contrary to the expectations hypothesis. The paper discusses the response of the U.S. bond market to shifts in monetary policy in the spring of 1994 and reviews the debate over the optimal maturity structure of the U.S. government debt.