缺失的进口价格变动与低汇率传递

Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2014
被引 19
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

研究发现,在构建美国进口价格指数时,因商品进出样本而遗漏的价格变化对汇率传递的估计偏差很小,支持了汇率对美国进口价格影响较低的结论。

Abstract

A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on US inflation. However, exchange rate pass-through may be underestimated because some price changes are missed when constructing price indexes. We investigate downward biases that arise when items exit or enter the US import price index. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics microdata, we find that, although potentially large in theory, the empirical biases are modest over typical forecast horizons. As such, the empirical evidence continues to support the conclusion that pass-through to US import prices is low.

缺失进口价格变动汇率传递低估进口价格指数偏差低汇率传递效应