Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters
介绍英国央行外部预测者调查这一新数据源，该调查收集通胀和GDP增长的点预测与密度预测，用于构建不确定性和分歧的直接度量，并与其他国内外度量比较。
This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth and, hence, offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008.