Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks
研究了美国外生税收增加如何通过国内储蓄和投资调整,以及经常账户变化传导至全球,发现近一半的税收变化通过美国经常账户传导至国外,其他国家则出现经常账户下降和投资增加。
This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Exogenous tax increases in the United States (from Romer and Romer 2010) are only partially offset by changes in domestic private savings, and only a small amount is absorbed by increased domestic investment (contra Feldstein and Horioka 1980). Almost half the change in taxes is transmitted abroad through a change in the US current account. Other countries experience decreases in current accounts and increases in investment in response to exogenous US tax increases. We cannot reject symmetric responses across countries with different currency regimes and levels of development.