The Demand for M1 in the U.S.A., 1960-1988
提出一个包含通胀、实际收入、长期债券收益率和风险等变量的M1需求函数，用动态误差修正模型估计，发现该模型在1960-1988年间稳定且预测误差小，能解释此前模型的“失灵”。
Estimated U.S. M1 demand functions appear unstable, regularly "breaking down, " over 1960–1988 (e.g. missing money, great velocity decline, M1-explosion). We propose a money demand function whose arguments include inflation, real income, long-term bond yield and risk, T-bill interest rates, and learning curve weighted yields on newly introduced instruments in M1 and non-transactions M2. The model is estimated in dynamic error-correction form; it is constant and, with an equation standard error of 0–4%, variance-dominates most previous models. Estimating alternative specifications explains earlier "breakdowns, " showing the model's distinctive features to be important in accounting for the data.