Exchange Rate Crises and Fiscal Solvency
将第一代货币危机模型与财政价格水平理论结合，构建动态模型解释汇率危机，说明债务上限和盈余冲击如何导致政策转换和货币贬值以恢复财政偿付能力，并用阿根廷2001年危机为例。
This paper combines insights from generation one currency crisis models and the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) to create a dynamic FTPL model of currency crises. The initial fixed‐exchange‐rate policy entails risks due to an upper bound on government debt and stochastic surplus shocks. Agents refuse to lend into a position for which the value of debt exceeds the present value of expected future surpluses. Policy switching, usually combined with currency depreciation, restores fiscal solvency and lending. This model can explain a wide variety of crises, including those involving sovereign default. We illustrate by explaining the crisis in Argentina (2001).