Does Austerity Pay Off?
研究了财政冲击（政府消费的意外变化）如何影响主权违约溢价，发现政府消费增加几乎不影响违约溢价，而减少在财政压力大时提高溢价、在初始条件良好时降低溢价。
We investigate empirically how fiscal shocks—unanticipated and exogenous changes of government consumption growth—affect the sovereign default premium. For this purpose, we assemble a new data set for 38 emerging and developed economies. It contains approximately 3,000 observations for the sovereign default premium and three alternative measures of fiscal shocks. We condition our estimates on whether shocks are positive or negative and initial conditions in terms of fiscal stress. An increase of government consumption barely affects the default premium. A reduction raises the premium if fiscal stress is severe but decreases it if initial conditions are benign.