Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?
利用阿根廷和墨西哥百年数据估计小国开放经济模型，发现标准RBC模型无法解释新兴国家经济周期，而加入国家溢价冲击和金融摩擦的模型表现良好，且非平稳生产率冲击作用微乎其微。
We use more than a century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job of explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then estimate an augmented model that incorporates shocks to the country premium and financial frictions. We find that the estimated financial-friction model provides a remarkably good account of business cycles in emerging markets and, importantly, assigns a negligible role to nonstationary productivity shocks.