Trajectories in the Evolution of Technology: A Multi-Level Study of Competition in Formula 1 Racing
基于1967-1982年F1赛车数据，研究组件、企业和系统三个层面的技术演化轨迹，分析技术透明度如何影响主导设计的出现，对理解技术竞争和产业演化有参考价值。
This paper explores the trajectories of three key technologies in Formula 1 racing at the component, firm and system levels of analysis. The purpose is to gain an understanding of the evolutionary forces that contribute to the emergence and survival of dominant designs. Based on archival data and contemporaneous accounts of the period 1967-1982, we develop a series of propositions specifying the evolutionary forces acting on technological trajectories within each level of analysis. The resulting framework leads to a set of predictions about relationships between technological transparency, co-evolution, and the emergence of dominant designs. Specifically, we argue that when the costs and difficulty associated with transferring component knowledge between firms is low (technological transparency is high), technologies tend to co-evolve across firms, leading to the development of complementary technologies and increasing the likelihood of industry dominance. Where transparency is low, however, technologies tend to co-evolve across functions within firms, leading to the development of competing technologies across firms, increasing the likelihood of a technology's dominance within the firm. The data and argument suggest that the forces acting on these two types of technological trajectories are self-reinforcing, so that as momentum builds behind a trajectory, it becomes more likely that its evolutionary path will end in either firm-or system-level dominance.