Foreign Aid, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Growth in the Aftermath of Civil Wars
基于39个冲突国和44个非冲突国1970-2004年的面板数据，研究了外援、实际汇率与经济增长在内战后的关系，发现外援虽不影响汇率高估，但显著促进增长且存在递减效应，汇率高估则抑制增长，金融发展可缓解此负面作用。
Foreign aid, the real exchange rate (RER), and economic growth are three key variables that shape the aftermath of civil wars in many developing countries. Panel estimations drawn from a sample of 39 conflict and 44 nonconflict countries between 1970 and 2004 indicate that although postconflict countries receive larger aid flows and exhibit moderate RER overvaluation after peace is attained, overvaluation cannot be traced to aid. Yet foreign aid is among the significant determinants of the equilibrium RER. Aid is also an important determinant of economic growth, particularly after peace is reached. Aid exhibits decreasing returns, however, and interacts negatively with RER overvaluation. RER overvaluation reduces growth, but this effect is ameliorated by financial development. Postconflict policies should therefore aim to use aid prudently, avoid RER misalignment, and support financial and capital market development to achieve high and stable growth in the aftermath of war and beyond.