Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach*
展示了一个具有长期约束的VAR模型，可用于预测通胀和分析货币政策核心问题，对研究通胀目标制的学者有用。
Abstract Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more interesting. In particular, within the inflation targeting framework it has been argued that inflation forecasts can be used as optimal intermediate targets for monetary policy, and the development of empirical models that have good forecasting properties is therefore important. This paper shows that a VAR model with long‐run restrictions, justified by economic theory, is useful for both forecasting inflation and for analysing other issues that are central to the conduct of monetary policy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.