The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985
研究了1981年以来美国里根政府实施的财政扩张与货币紧缩政策组合对降低通胀和促进产出的贡献,发现该组合使通胀降低多达3个百分点,但未来这些成果可能丧失。
In 19T1, Robert Mundell proposed a stunning solution to the three problems then affecting the U.S. econonr: high inflation and unemployment, and a weak currency. Mundell suggested that the policy mix of fiscal expansion and monetary contraction could work to raise output, reduce inflation, and strengthen the currency at the same time. This policy mix has been pursued under the Reagan administration since 1981. The paper investigates the contributions of this policy mix to disinflation and output growth. It finds that the policy mix has contributed as much as three percentage points of the reduction in inflation during l981_8I, but that the gains against inflation due to the mix will likely be lost, or more than lost, in the future.