Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Growth*
研究了17-18世纪死亡率下降如何通过提高教育投资激励，解释了前工业时代70%的增长加速，对理解现代经济增长起源有参考价值。
Abstract We explore the hypothesis that demographic changes which began in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries are at the root of the acceleration in growth rates at the dawn of the modern age. During this period, life tables for Geneva and Venice show a decline in adult mortality; French marriage registers reveal an important increase in literacy; historians measure an acceleration of economic growth. We develop an endogenous growth model with a realistic survival law in which rising longevity increases individual incentives to invest in education and fosters growth. We quantitatively estimate that the observed improvements in adult mortality account for 70% of the growth acceleration in the pre‐industrial age.