Private Sector Risk and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
研究了资本市场不完美如何将国家分为安全信贷俱乐部和风险俱乐部，并解释了新兴市场在负面冲击下如何因信贷收缩和违约爆发金融危机。
Investment necessary for growth is risky and often requires external financing. We present a model in which capital market imperfections separate countries into a safe credit club of industrial countries, with low interest rates and steady credit access and a risky club of emerging markets, with high interest rates and volatile access. In an emerging market, a large negative productivity shock interacts with credit‐market imperfections to trigger a severe contraction in external lending. Domestic agents react with widespread default. We calibrate to South Korean parameters and argue that the 1998 financial crisis could have been the downside of risky investment financed in imperfect capital markets.