Optimal Inflation for the US Economy
在一个小型新凯恩斯模型中，研究了最优长期通胀率，发现政府承诺最优政策时通胀率低于1%，而每期重新优化时升至17%，采用惯性泰勒规则可消除通胀偏差且福利损失很小。
This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate (OIR) in a small New Keynesian model, where the only policy instrument is a short-term nominal interest rate that may occasionally run against a zero lower bound (ZLB). The model allows for worst-case scenarios of misspecification. The analysis shows first, if the government optimally commits, the OIR is below 1 percent annually. Second, if the government re-optimizes each period, the OIR rises markedly to 17 percent. Third, if the government commits only to an inertial Taylor rule, the inflation bias is eliminated at very low cost in terms of welfare for the representative household.