Natural “Natural Experiments” in Economics
回顾了利用自然事件作为自然实验工具的经济学文献，评估其对实证知识的贡献，指出研究常缺乏必要的假设，并通过20项研究总结和简单模型展示假设放松对结果解释的影响。
The recent literature exploiting natural events as “natural experiment” instruments is reviewed to assess to what extent it has advanced empirical knowledge. A weakness of the studies that adopt this approach is that the necessary set of behavioral, market, and technological assumptions made by the authors in justifying their interpretations of the estimates is often absent. The methodology and findings from twenty studies are summarized and simple economic models are used to elucidate the implicit assumptions made by the authors and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the interpretations of the findings to the relaxation of some of these assumptions.