USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*
开发了一个概率随机游走模型，用于分析不同广告投放时间模式对销售的影响，并利用最大似然法评估广告效果和遗忘率，通过人工数据和邮寄广告案例验证模型。
Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail‐order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.