Costs and benefits of controlling quarantine diseases: a bio‐economic modeling approach
构建了一个生物经济模型，用于量化控制植物检疫疾病的成本与收益，并以荷兰马铃薯褐腐病为例，评估不同控制策略的成本效益，发现监测频率降低会导致出口损失增加。
Abstract This article describes a bio‐economic model to quantify the costs and benefits of controlling plant quarantine diseases. The model integrates the epidemiology and economic consequences of a quarantine disease. It allows for ex ante evaluation of control scenarios for their cost‐effectiveness, taking into account potential export losses resulting from presence of the disease. The model is applied to brown rot of potato in the Dutch potato production chain. Simulation results show that under the current (2006) control policy, the average yearly costs of brown rot are 7.7 million euros. Reducing monitoring frequency increases the costs to 12.5 million euros, 60% of which are export losses. It is also shown that, due to potential long‐term effects of a strategy, conclusions on cost‐effectiveness of a strategy depend on the length of the period over which that strategy is observed. These applications illustrate the potential of the bio‐economic model to facilitate the development of cost‐effective and soundly based control policies.