Producers' Expectations: their Role in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
基于皮古和凯恩斯的观点，利用瑞士企业预期与实际产出数据，发现货币政策仅通过影响企业家预期来影响产出，这与新古典学派的货币冲击传导观点相悖。
This article relates to the view expressed by Pigou and Keynes that whatever factors affect the demand for goods it is ultimately producers' expectations and plans that determine the level of output. We build on this notion in order to address the question how changes in monetary policy affect output in Switzerland. For this purpose we study data on expected and actual output collected by the business cycle research center(KOF) at the Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zürich. The econometric analysis documents that monetary affect output only by their impact on expectations of entrepreneurs. This finding contradicts the new classical view of the propagation of monetary shocks.