被撤回:在衰退中成长

Retracted: Growing up in a Recession

Review of Economic Studies · 2013
被引 486 · 同刊同年前 9%
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究发现,年轻时经历经济衰退的人更相信成功靠运气而非努力,更支持政府再分配,并倾向于投票给左翼政党,且这种影响长期存在。

Abstract

Does the historical macroeconomic environment affect preferences for redistribution? We find that individuals who experienced a recession when young believe that success in life depends more on luck than effort, support more government redistribution, and tend to vote for left-wing parties. The effect of recessions on beliefs is long-lasting. We support our findings with evidence from three different datasets. First, we identify the effect of recessions on beliefs exploiting time and regional variation in macroeconomic conditions using data from the 1972 to 2010 General Social Survey. Our specifications control for nonlinear time-period, life-cycle, and cohort effects, as well as a host of background variables. Second, we rely on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972 to corroborate the age–period–cohort specification and look at heterogeneous effects of experiencing a recession during early adulthood. Third, using data from the World Value Survey, we confirm our findings with a sample of 37 countries whose citizens experienced macroeconomic disasters at different points in history.

经济衰退经历再分配偏好信念形成代际效应