Forecasting ability of theory-constrained two-stage demand systems
比较了两阶段需求系统中条件预测与无条件预测、弹性预测与直接统计预测的准确性，发现条件预测和弹性预测更优，但施加消费者理论的齐次性和对称性约束并未改善预测效果。
Demand models are commonly used to forecast effects of policy changes and two-stage demand systems are frequently used when disaggregated food items are involved. A two-stage system implies interconnections between the stages. These interconnections can be modelled to make unconditional forecasts, or the second stage can be modelled separately to make conditional forecasts. We compare conditional and unconditional elasticity-based and direct statistical forecasts. For our data, conditional forecasts are superior to unconditional forecasts and forecasts derived from elasticities are superior to direct statistical forecasts. Imposition of the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions of consumer theory does not improve the forecasts.