What Explains The Great Moderation in the U.S.? A Structural Analysis
利用贝叶斯方法和滚动样本的小型结构模型，分析美国产出和通胀波动下降的原因，发现私人部门参数变化最大，但政策规则和冲击协方差矩阵的变化解释力最强。
This paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the U.S. using a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. There are instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector, the policy rule, and the variance of the shocks. Results are robust to the specification of the policy rule. Changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest, but those of the policy rule and the covariance matrix of the shocks explain the changes most.