Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data
用38个行业或产品组别的实物数据重新检验生产平滑模型，发现约三分之二的组别中生产比发货更平滑，但欧拉方程估计的成本参数通常不精确且符号与模型预测不符。
The authors reconsider the paradox that the variance of production often exceeds the variance of shipments, a result that casts doubt on the production smoothing model of inventory behavior. Most studies of production smoothing have analyzed two-digit SIC dollar-value data from Commerce Department surveys. In contrast, this paper reexamines disaggregated physical-product data and finds that production is smoother than shipments in about two-thirds of the thirty-eight industry or product groupings considered. However, doubts about the model persist; most notably, Euler equation estimates of the model's cost parameters are usually imprecise and often do not have the signs postulated by production smoothing models. Copyright 1991 by University of Chicago Press.