Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
分析美国战后期限结构数据，发现长期与短期利率的收益率差能预测长期短期利率上升，但短期长期债券收益率下降，这与预期理论不一致，但与一个模型相符。
This paper examines postwar U.S. term structure data and finds that for almost any combination of maturities between one month and ten years, a high yield spread between a longer-term and a shorter-term interest rate forecasts rising shorter-term interest rates over the long term, but a declining yield on the longer-term bond over the short term. This pattern is inconsistent with the expectations theory of the term structure, but is consistent with a model in which the spread is proportional to the value implied by the expectations theory.