Estimating the ex ante Expected Returns to College
将上大学视为不确定投资，考虑不同毕业概率，预测不同能力学生从选择性及非选择性院校毕业或未毕业的收入，发现事前回报与传统估计差异显著，尤其对低能力学生。
Rather than estimating the returns to obtaining a college degree, this paper treats the college education decision as an uncertain investment involving varying likelihoods of successful graduation. We predict earnings conditional on both graduating and not graduating from both selective and non-selective institutions, and incorporate estimated individual-specific graduation rates in calculating the ex ante expected returns from college attendance for individuals across the ability distribution. Our results suggest that, especially for lower ability students, ex ante returns may differ substantially from typical estimates of the returns to a college degree, and typical estimates of the selectivity premium may be underestimated.