Heterogeneity and Tests of Risk Sharing
研究发现风险偏好与收入周期性的相关性使标准风险分担回归产生悲观偏差,通过新方法消除偏差后,美国数据中收入冲击对消费的影响很小且统计上不显著。
How well do people share risk? Standard risk-sharing regressions assume that any variation in households' risk preferences is uncorrelated with variation in the cyclicality of income. I combine administrative and survey data to show that this assumption is questionable: Risk-tolerant workers hold jobs in which earnings carry more aggregate risk. The correlation makes risk-sharing regressions in the previous literature too pessimistic. I derive techniques that eliminate the bias, apply them to U.S. data, and find that the effect of idiosyncratic income shocks on consumption is practically small and statistically difficult to distinguish from zero.