Learning, Adaptive Expectations and Technology Shocks
研究标准增长模型中适应性预期的宏观影响，发现其稳态与理性预期一致，但动态差异显著，能放大和传导技术冲击，有助于解释劳动力市场波动。
This study explores the macroeconomic implications of adaptive expectations in a standard growth model. We show that the self-confirming equilibrium under adaptive expectations is the same as the steady state rational expectations equilibrium for all admissible parameter values, but that dynamics around the steady state are substantially different between the two equilibria. The differences are driven mainly by the dampened wealth effect and the strengthened intertemporal substitution effect, not by escapes emphasised by Williams (2003) . Consequently, adaptive expectations can be an important source of frictions that amplify and propagate technology shocks and seem promising for generating plausible labour market dynamics. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.