Periodic Cointegration: Representation and Inference
提出周期协整的新方法，允许长期效应和调整参数随季节变化，并给出检验、估计和假设检验的步骤，最后应用于瑞典总消费模型。
This paper considers a new approach to the analysis of stable relationships between nonstationary seasonal time series. The basis of this approach is an error correction model in which both long-run effects and adjustment parameters are allowed to vary per season. First, we discuss theoretical arguments for such a periodic error correction model. We define periodic cointegration and compare this to the concept of seasonal cointegration. Next, we analyze statistical inference in the periodic error correction model A sequential procedure is proposed, consisting of a test for periodic cointegration, an estimator of the cointegration parameters and adjustment coefficients, and a class of tests for the hypothesis that some of the parameters are constant over the seasons. The finite sample behavior of the proposed test statistics is analyzed in a limited Monte Carlo exercise. We conclude the paper with an application to a model of aggregate Swedish consumption.