Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?
分析1970年以来欧元区通胀过程的参数稳定性，发现持续性参数（滞后因变量系数之和）相对稳定，接近1，这间接反驳了具有强前瞻性元素的理性预期模型（如新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线）。
This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behavior of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the euro-area inflation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are generally close to 1, and we fail to reject the hypothesis that this parameter has been stable over time. We discuss how these results provide some indirect evidence against rational expectations models with strong forward-looking elements, such as the New Keynesian Phillips curve. © 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.